GOA, 29 June 2026: A collaborative investigation by the Goa Institute of Management (GIM), Indian Institute of Management (IIM) Raipur, and Xavier School of Management (XLRI) Jamshedpur researched the connection between geopolitical strife, crude oil pricing, and their effects on the stock market. It was published in the eminent American Business Review. The research focuses on the interactions of the disruptions in the energy market and geopolitical occurrences with stock markets.

The researchers, GIM’s Associate Professor Chinmaya Behera, IIM Raipur’s Assistant Professor Pradiptarathi Panda, and XLRI Jamshedpur’s Professor Purna Chandra Padhan, used daily data across 39 developed economies and the model-free connectedness framework. The outcome of their research estimates that close to 72.9% of financial disruptions across the world, caused by geopolitical tension and fluctuations in crude oil pricing, affect stock markets in the developed economies. The results portray the interlinked nature of the world’s financial systems.

Discussing the research results, Prof. Chinmaya Behera, Associate Professor, GIM, stated:

"The research demonstrates the need for investors, the government, and financial services to understand the interconnected phenomena to design better frameworks for the functioning of the market and to provide better services for the clients."

According to the study, Austria, Belgium, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, and Taiwan are the primary sources of market disruption. Conversely, Chile, Cyprus, Iceland, Latvia, Qatar, and Slovenia are the most affected by market disruptions. The study further explains that the stock market of most developed countries is affected by the changes in oil prices. In addition, in the Czech Republic, Greece, Iceland, the Netherlands, Qatar, and Switzerland, the indicators of geopolitical risk are likely to predict other economic variables. Regarding the study's significance, Prof. Pradiptarathi Panda, Assistant Professor, IIM Raipur, stated:

"The study has many advantages. First, it adds to the research on the relationship between geopolitical risk, oil prices, and stock markets. Second, it focuses on 39 developed countries. Third, it uses high-frequency data. Fourth, it uses a combination of volatility spillover and predictive analytics. Hence, it focuses on the transmission and prediction of risk."

Based on his research, Prof. Purna Chandra Padhan, Professor, XLRI Jamshedpur, stated:

"Geopolitical risk, oil prices, and stock markets have been interlinked in developed countries, even in periods of structural changes and the COVID-19 crisis."

The results from this study are beneficial for a variety of audiences:

• Investors can use this information to strengthen portfolio diversification and improve methods of managing risk.
• Policymakers can improve their financial stability monitoring of systemic risks associated with geopolitical disruptions and energy markets.
• Financial institutions can enhance forecasting of market volatility and improve investment decisions in global uncertainty.

The results of the study give in-depth information on the financial resilience and the assessment of risk concerning the geopolitical disruptions and conflicts. As the global economy continues to endure general uncertainty, this study emphasizes the relevance of grasping the interlinked structures of the global market.

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